Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the November 5 US presidential elections, renowned economist Christophe Barraud has predicted. Known as the “world’s most accurate economist,” Mr Barraud’s forecast is predicated on various metrics, including financial market signals, which he says indicate a Trump-led “GOP clean sweep” come November 5.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modellers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: Trump victory, GOP clean sweep,” he wrote on X.
???????? #USElection2024 | Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are:
1️⃣ #Trump victory
2️⃣ #GOP clean sweep
*Polymarket: https://t.co/wHYuypGbPm
*Kalshi:… pic.twitter.com/RV2DlCw9Ft
— Christophe Barraud???????? (@C_Barraud) October 28, 2024
Mr Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has topped Bloomberg’s economic forecast rankings for 11 of the past 12 years. At 38, he continues to maintain a remarkable track record, giving credence to his latest predictions. According to Mr Barraud, while the GOP will likely take control of the Senate, the House of Representatives could be a closer call, adding it’s still leaning in favour of Republicans.
In an interview with Business Insider, Mr Barraud suggested that a Trump presidency, combined with Republican control of Congress, could result in a temporary economic boost with GDP growth projected between 2.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent in 2025. Yet, he also warned about potential long-term issues, including a growing federal deficit if significant tax cuts are not offset by other revenue sources, under Trump.
According to Mr Barraud, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond might jump to 4.5 per cent shortly after a Trump win, potentially reaching 5 per cent as the administration’s policies unfold. He also predicts that under a Trump administration, the US GDP could surpass consensus forecasts, which estimate 2.6 per cent growth in 2024 and 1.8 per cent in 2025.
Regardless of the election outcome, Mr Barraud suggested the economy might continue to perform well in the near term. However, he noted that a split Congress would likely stall many of Trump’s proposed domestic policies, shifting his focus toward tariffs – an approach Mr Barraud believes could slow long-term US and global economic growth.
Earlier, well-known statistician Nate Silver, who successfully predicted five US presidential elections, indicated a potential Trump victory in the tight race against Kamala Harris. Mr Silver revealed that his “gut feeling” leaned toward Trump, giving the former president a 53.1 per cent chance of winning a second term. He warned against over-relying on intuition, though.
Last month, Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of US elections for accurately predicting nine of the last ten presidential outcomes, believes Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. Using his “Keys to the White House” model, which evaluates 13 factors about the incumbent party’s strength, Mr Lichtman concluded Harris holds an edge on eight “keys” while Trump has three.
