In a forecast that went largely unnoticed, Yigal Carmon, a prominent counter-terrorism expert and founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), predicted Hamas’ violent invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023, a month before it occurred. His article, published on August 31, 2023, titled “Signs of Possible War in September-October,” was one of the few open-source warnings that accurately pinpointed the specific timeframe of the assault.
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas, backed by Iran, launched a devastating invasion into southern Israel, resulting in one of the deadliest attacks in the country’s recent history. The violence left nearly 1,200 dead, and over 250 individuals abducted. The massacre rattled Israel and shocked the world.
In its counter-offensive, Israel launched wave after wave of attacks into Gaza, the besieged Palestinian territory, resulting in the deaths of over 40,000 people, mostly civilians.
“Lately there have been growing indications that a war against Israel may break out in September or October 2023. The trigger may be spiraling violent clashes resulting in many casualties, or the use of new weapons leading to many fatalities on the Israeli side, in the face of which Israel will be unable to suffice with its regular counterterrorism measures,” Carmon wrote in August 2023.
“While neither Hamas nor Hizbullah are eager to start a comprehensive confrontation with Israel, such a confrontation could result from an uncontrolled deterioration on the ground or from the use of new and unusually deadly weapons by these movements,” he added.
His August prediction stemmed from rising tensions on Israel’s borders, coupled with Hezbollah’s increasing territorial demands and challenges to Israel’s sovereignty. In his analysis, Carmon warned that while neither Hamas nor Hezbollah seemed eager for an all-out war, the volatile conditions on the ground could easily spiral into a larger conflict.
“During the Jewish holidays in September and October, Jews are likely to visit the Al-Aqsa compound, as happens every year. Hamas and Hizbullah spokesmen have stressed that this could lead to a regional war,” he wrote.
As the devastating regional conflict continues, calls for a ceasefire have been largely unsuccessful. A series of meetings in Qatar between stakeholders on both sides have yielded no tangible solution
